xJawn NHL expected goals

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LAK Anze Kopitar

C · career · 16 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26LAK1,007 -0.10+0.12+0.14 +0.16+3.4 80th
2024-25LAK1,225 +0.02-0.05+0.10 +0.05+1.2 63rd
2023-24LAK1,169 -0.03+0.06+0.11 +0.11+2.9 74th
2022-23LAK1,262 +0.11+0.07+0.15 +0.36+10.0 94th
2021-22LAK1,287 +0.08+0.02+0.15 +0.27+7.7 92nd
2020-21LAK813 +0.02-0.00+0.12 +0.22+4.1 92nd
2019-20LAK1,044 -0.01+0.06+0.12 +0.30+6.8 96th
2018-19LAK1,312 -0.01-0.07+0.14 +0.15+4.1 87th
2017-18LAK1,360 -0.01+0.05+0.13 +0.23+6.8 94th
2016-17LAK1,126 +0.03+0.03+0.13 +0.25+6.3 95th
2015-16LAK1,282 +0.04+0.06+0.14 +0.35+10.0 99th
2014-15LAK1,083 +0.01+0.08+0.12 +0.32+7.7 97th
2013-14LAK1,549 +0.22+0.20+0.15 +0.64+22.7 99th
2012-13LAK993 +0.07+0.06+0.12 +0.31+6.5 94th
2011-12LAK1,491 +0.11+0.07+0.19 +0.45+15.6 100th
2010-11LAK1,112 +0.07+0.05+0.18 +0.41+10.4 99th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.