xJawn NHL expected goals

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FLA Brad Marchand

L · career · 16 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26FLA618 +0.22-0.30+0.28 +0.36+5.2 94th
2024-25BOS1,207 +0.23-0.10+0.27 +0.56+14.8 99th
2023-24BOS1,194 +0.07+0.14+0.24 +0.57+15.7 98th
2022-23BOS1,022 +0.06-0.01+0.27 +0.42+9.9 96th
2021-22BOS995 +0.10+0.08+0.32 +0.62+14.3 100th
2020-21BOS835 +0.09+0.02+0.28 +0.43+8.1 98th
2019-20BOS1,048 +0.08+0.01+0.30 +0.53+12.8 100th
2018-19BOS1,413 +0.10-0.08+0.28 +0.38+12.0 98th
2017-18BOS1,117 +0.08-0.03+0.27 +0.39+9.6 98th
2016-17BOS1,198 +0.12-0.01+0.28 +0.36+9.5 98th
2015-16BOS1,075 +0.11+0.05+0.26 +0.43+9.7 100th
2014-15BOS1,039 +0.05+0.04+0.24 +0.25+5.1 94th
2013-14BOS1,275 +0.04+0.02+0.22 +0.25+6.2 91st
2012-13BOS945 +0.21+0.01+0.26 +0.57+11.0 99th
2011-12BOS1,130 +0.09+0.05+0.26 +0.46+11.0 100th
2010-11BOS1,253 +0.08-0.01+0.24 +0.27+6.5 97th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.