xJawn NHL expected goals

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OTT Claude Giroux

R · career · 16 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26OTT1,030 +0.08+0.18+0.10 +0.38+8.4 95th
2024-25OTT1,087 -0.11-0.02+0.08 +0.00+0.1 58th
2023-24OTT1,154 +0.09+0.04+0.11 +0.36+9.4 95th
2022-23OTT1,137 +0.20+0.01+0.13 +0.35+8.3 94th
2021-22PHI1,166 +0.08+0.05+0.11 +0.37+9.2 97th
2020-21PHI733 +0.05+0.03+0.13 +0.41+6.1 98th
2019-20PHI1,167 +0.05+0.02+0.12 +0.38+9.3 98th
2018-19PHI1,228 +0.00+0.01+0.11 +0.31+8.5 97th
2017-18PHI1,293 +0.12+0.01+0.11 +0.50+13.9 100th
2016-17PHI1,149 -0.03-0.04+0.11 +0.21+5.2 94th
2015-16PHI1,161 -0.02-0.07+0.10 +0.16+4.4 89th
2014-15PHI1,220 +0.05-0.01+0.14 +0.29+7.5 97th
2013-14PHI1,282 -0.02-0.08+0.15 +0.21+6.0 87th
2012-13PHI697 +0.05-0.10+0.13 +0.31+4.8 94th
2011-12PHI1,236 +0.09-0.09+0.17 +0.33+9.6 99th
2010-11PHI1,252 +0.20+0.01+0.15 +0.51+14.9 100th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.