xJawn NHL expected goals

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OTT David Perron

L · career · 16 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26OTT740 -0.11+0.24+0.11 +0.21+3.1 87th
2024-25OTT571 +0.01+0.02+0.12 +0.15+1.6 78th
2023-24DET921 -0.13+0.01+0.10 -0.03-0.6 49th
2022-23DET1,035 +0.12+0.06+0.12 +0.44+9.7 96th
2021-22STL1,093 -0.03+0.09+0.13 +0.25+5.4 92nd
2020-21STL809 -0.03+0.03+0.11 +0.16+2.5 87th
2019-20STL1,099 -0.05+0.02+0.11 -0.01-0.2 55th
2018-19STL1,173 -0.09+0.05+0.10 -0.11-2.4 27th
2017-18VGK1,189 -0.09-0.04+0.07 -0.12-2.7 27th
2016-17STL1,248 -0.05+0.08+0.09 +0.09+2.2 78th
2015-16PIT981 +0.07+0.00+0.14 +0.13+2.5 84th
2014-15PIT1,194 +0.01+0.04+0.12 +0.15+3.6 87th
2013-14EDM1,160 -0.01+0.05+0.14 +0.21+4.9 87th
2012-13STL756 +0.03+0.04+0.10 +0.17+2.6 83rd
2011-12STL914 +0.02-0.06+0.14 +0.13+2.5 88th
2010-11STL128 +0.03+0.02+0.17 +0.32+1.0

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.