xJawn NHL expected goals

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NJD Jacob Markstrom

G · 2025-26 · regular season · 44 GP · 2,095 min 5v5 TOI

On-ice xGF% 5v5
49.4%(46th)
On-ice GF / GA 5v5
72 / 95
GA / xGA 5v5
95 / 82.2
Saving 5v5
-12.8
Saving rating modeled
+0.06(86th)

On-ice xG shot map

How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Jacob Markstrom is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. The league-spread histograms and the xGF% percentile rank against the other goalies over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the player's markers but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
Goals43.1%72
56.9%95
xG49.4%80.2
50.6%82.2
xG/6049.4%2.30
50.6%2.35
Shots52.6%972
47.4%877
Attempts52.7%2,064
47.3%1,855

Rolling on-ice xGF%

Strength splits

On-ice rates are per 60 minutes at that strength (real time-on-ice), own perspective — a skater's PP row is their team's power play while they are out there.

StrengthTOI/gmxGFxGAxGF%xGF/60xGA/60GFGA
5v547.6 80.282.249.4% 2.302.357295
Power play4.4 27.63.389.4% 8.661.02202
Penalty kill4.7 3.427.510.9% 0.988.01232

Modeled saving

The decontaminated saving rating from the joint shooter/goalie fit: Jacob Markstrom's per-shot logit margin suppressing goals on attempts at their net, multi-season, time-decayed, positive = good — +0.06 (86th percentile, 32,264 shots informing it). Per-shot quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__bbd50047 (as of 2026-06-14). Both are separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.