xJawn NHL expected goals

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EDM Calvin Pickard

G · 2025-26 · regular season · 16 GP · 714 min 5v5 TOI

On-ice xGF% 5v5
44.9%(11th)
On-ice GF / GA 5v5
28 / 40
GA / xGA 5v5
40 / 34.8
Saving 5v5
-5.2
Saving rating modeled
-0.06(13th)

On-ice xG shot map

How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Calvin Pickard is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. The league-spread histograms and the xGF% percentile rank against the other goalies over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the player's markers but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
Goals41.2%28
58.8%40
xG44.9%28.4
55.1%34.8
xG/6044.9%2.38
55.1%2.92
Shots49.2%316
50.8%326
Attempts49.6%647
50.4%658

Rolling on-ice xGF%

Strength splits

On-ice rates are per 60 minutes at that strength (real time-on-ice), own perspective — a skater's PP row is their team's power play while they are out there.

StrengthTOI/gmxGFxGAxGF%xGF/60xGA/60GFGA
5v544.7 28.434.844.9% 2.382.922840
Power play4.1 12.81.291.4% 11.691.10142
Penalty kill4.4 1.511.911.2% 1.2710.0229

Modeled saving

The decontaminated saving rating from the joint shooter/goalie fit: Calvin Pickard's per-shot logit margin suppressing goals on attempts at their net, multi-season, time-decayed, positive = good — -0.06 (13th percentile, 10,118 shots informing it). Per-shot quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__bbd50047 (as of 2026-06-14). Both are separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.