xJawn NHL expected goals

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SJS Jeff Skinner

L · career · 16 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26SJS333 +0.00-0.05-0.01 +0.13+0.8 76th
2024-25EDM887 +0.15-0.15+0.01 +0.07+1.1 66th
2023-24BUF949 +0.13-0.25-0.01 -0.08-1.4 42nd
2022-23BUF1,072 +0.33-0.19+0.01 +0.27+5.9 90th
2021-22BUF1,088 +0.16-0.10+0.02 +0.11+2.3 79th
2020-21BUF681 -0.01+0.05+0.01 +0.22+2.7 91st
2019-20BUF781 -0.01-0.03+0.01 +0.12+1.8 82nd
2018-19BUF1,210 +0.07-0.03+0.02 +0.24+5.7 94th
2017-18CAR1,139 +0.09-0.01+0.02 +0.18+3.9 89th
2016-17CAR1,155 +0.10-0.08+0.02 +0.17+3.7 91st
2015-16CAR1,109 +0.02-0.03+0.02 +0.14+3.0 87th
2014-15CAR1,006 -0.01-0.05+0.02 +0.08+1.5 78th
2013-14CAR950 +0.00-0.01+0.03 +0.16+3.1 80th
2012-13CAR616 +0.09-0.20+0.03 +0.06+0.8 66th
2011-12CAR898 +0.09-0.05+0.04 +0.27+5.0 97th
2010-11CAR1,032 +0.11-0.05+0.05 +0.31+6.7 98th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.