xJawn NHL expected goals

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WPG Nino Niederreiter

R · career · 15 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26WPG728 +0.00+0.13-0.00 +0.12+1.6 74th
2024-25WPG1,255 -0.13-0.13+0.00 -0.29-6.7 11th
2023-24WPG1,037 +0.07+0.11-0.00 +0.11+2.2 74th
2022-23NSH1,087 +0.00+0.14-0.01 +0.16+3.5 80th
2021-22CAR1,164 +0.15+0.01+0.00 +0.11+2.5 80th
2020-21CAR857 +0.13+0.04+0.01 +0.11+1.8 82nd
2019-20CAR896 +0.01+0.05+0.00 -0.02-0.4 51st
2018-19CAR1,321 +0.11+0.01+0.01 +0.11+2.8 82nd
2017-18MIN847 +0.06+0.01+0.01 +0.06+1.1 73rd
2016-17MIN1,114 +0.01+0.08+0.00 +0.11+2.4 83rd
2015-16MIN1,139 +0.03+0.09+0.01 +0.08+1.6 75th
2014-15MIN1,106 -0.05+0.07+0.01 +0.04+0.8 66th
2013-14MIN1,178 -0.09+0.21+0.02 +0.12+2.5 75th
2011-12NYI531 -0.04-0.12+0.02 -0.13-1.2 21st
2010-11NYI112 -0.04-0.02+0.01 +0.03+0.1

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.