xJawn NHL expected goals

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VGK Mark Stone

R · career · 15 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26VGK1,035 +0.08+0.07+0.14 +0.49+11.4 98th
2024-25VGK1,096 +0.06+0.13+0.11 +0.37+8.6 96th
2023-24VGK831 +0.10+0.01+0.10 +0.28+5.4 91st
2022-23VGK912 +0.14+0.14+0.18 +0.62+12.1 99th
2021-22VGK514 +0.06-0.01+0.14 +0.31+3.3 95th
2020-21VGK1,047 +0.02+0.01+0.12 +0.23+5.3 92nd
2019-20VGK1,151 +0.19+0.05+0.14 +0.52+13.1 100th
2018-19OTT1,283 +0.22+0.09+0.13 +0.59+15.8 100th
2017-18OTT877 +0.12-0.00+0.12 +0.40+7.4 99th
2016-17OTT1,338 +0.04+0.06+0.10 +0.27+7.3 96th
2015-16OTT1,093 -0.02+0.02+0.10 +0.10+2.4 80th
2014-15OTT1,088 +0.06-0.01+0.14 +0.26+6.2 95th
2013-14OTT240 +0.22+0.07+0.24 +0.54+2.4
2012-13OTT46 -0.05-0.01+0.09 +0.15+0.1
2011-125 +0.00-0.00+0.10 +0.11+0.0

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.