xJawn NHL expected goals

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NSH Filip Forsberg

L · career · 14 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26NSH1,181 +0.04+0.02+0.10 +0.23+5.4 88th
2024-25NSH1,154 +0.15-0.12+0.12 +0.25+6.0 90th
2023-24NSH1,246 +0.17+0.04+0.15 +0.48+12.4 97th
2022-23NSH651 +0.08-0.08+0.15 +0.30+3.9 91st
2021-22NSH998 +0.09+0.04+0.17 +0.47+9.7 99th
2020-21NSH629 +0.03+0.00+0.14 +0.24+3.1 92nd
2019-20NSH868 +0.06-0.04+0.17 +0.22+4.0 92nd
2018-19NSH967 +0.17-0.01+0.19 +0.50+10.4 100th
2017-18NSH1,062 +0.13-0.04+0.16 +0.25+5.5 95th
2016-17NSH1,425 +0.06+0.02+0.14 +0.29+9.0 97th
2015-16NSH1,327 +0.07+0.01+0.16 +0.35+10.1 98th
2014-15NSH1,204 +0.04+0.03+0.15 +0.26+6.4 96th
2013-14NSH122 -0.07-0.05+0.09 -0.07-0.2
2012-13NSH64 +0.05-0.13+0.19 -0.00-0.0

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.