xJawn NHL expected goals

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PHI Rasmus Ristolainen

D · career · 13 seasons · value in goals above league average per 60 minutes of ice

GAA/60 by season

How to read this chart

One point per season: GAA/60, the accounting sum of that season's 5v5 value — chances created (Off xG-RAPM) + chances suppressed (Def xG-RAPM) + finishing above expectation — in goals above league average per 60 minutes of 5v5, power-play and penalty-kill ice. The players table shows the same accounting as a season total, which keeps ice time inside the number; this page divides it out, because comparing a player to himself across seasons should not be driven by how long each season was. The chart opens on the 3-season weighted average: each point is the ice-time-weighted average of the player's GAA/60 over that season and the two before it. A single season of RAPM is noisy (year-over-year correlation ≈ 0.5, the defensive half worse), so the smoothed line is the honest read — it answers "is this level real?" rather than "what did one 1,000-minute sample say?". The Single season toggle shows the raw per-season number instead, swings and all.

The grey bands are the league that same season, in the same view: the brighter fill is the middle half of skaters (25th–75th percentile), the faint fill the 5th–95th, the dashed line the league median — all over skaters with at least 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time (window-summed in the 3-season view). Where a point sits inside the bands is its percentile; the label above it makes it exact. Hollow points fall under the floor — they draw (the line is the career) but get no rank.

The vertical axis is GAA/60 — a linear goals-above-league-average scale, so heights add up. It opens on just the orange net line over the bands. Click Off / Def / Fin in the legend to stack that piece in: chances created and finishing (when positive) fill up from the dotted zero line, chances against fill down when a player is bleeding them, and the net line is their sum. Toggle each one independently — the line says how good, the stack says where the value came from.

Season by season

SeasonTeamTOIOffDefFinGAA/60GAA (goals)Percentile
2025-26PHI949 -0.11+0.15-0.06 -0.03-0.7 50th
2024-25PHI1,048 -0.08+0.17-0.06 +0.03+0.7 61st
2023-24PHI452 +0.11+0.12-0.06 +0.16+1.3 80th
2022-23PHI1,150 -0.10+0.16-0.05 -0.08-1.8 44th
2021-22PHI1,200 -0.01-0.07-0.06 -0.19-4.3 13th
2020-21BUF843 -0.05-0.06-0.06 -0.34-5.9 1st
2019-20BUF1,159 -0.08-0.01-0.07 -0.23-5.6 6th
2018-19BUF1,423 -0.05+0.00-0.07 -0.19-5.8 9th
2017-18BUF1,359 -0.04-0.05-0.07 -0.16-4.8 16th
2016-17BUF1,505 -0.03-0.03-0.07 -0.19-6.2 12th
2015-16BUF1,490 -0.05-0.03-0.06 -0.14-4.7 18th
2014-15BUF1,269 -0.08-0.14-0.05 -0.28-7.1 3rd
2013-14BUF528 -0.14-0.17-0.03 -0.31-3.3 9th

The table is always the raw single-season record — the ledger the 3-season line smooths. TOI is 5v5 minutes. GAA (goals) is the rate × that season's ice time — the season's total value in goals. Percentile is against that season's qualified skaters, single season.

GAA/60 comes from value artifact value__f4dc1877 (accounting layer, docs/player-value.md): single-season xG-RAPM plus the modeled finishing rating over the player's own 5v5 ice time; the 3-season view is the trailing ice-time-weighted average of those. It is a separate surface from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.