CAR Nikolaj Ehlers
L · 2025-26 · regular season · 82 GP · 1,044 min 5v5 TOI
On-ice xG shot map
How to read this map
One rink, both ends while Nikolaj Ehlers is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Nikolaj Ehlers took.
The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. The league-spread histograms and the xGF% percentile rank against the other skaters over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the player's markers but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
Rolling on-ice xGF%
Strength splits
On-ice rates are per 60 minutes at that strength (real time-on-ice), own perspective — a skater's PP row is their team's power play while they are out there.
| Strength | TOI/gm | xGF | xGA | xGF% | xGF/60 | xGA/60 | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5v5 | 12.7 | 52.5 | 40.3 | 56.6% | 3.02 | 2.32 | 53 | 43 |
| Power play | 3.2 | 37.2 | 4.5 | 89.3% | 8.59 | 1.03 | 44 | 3 |
| Penalty kill | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 16.0% | 0.66 | 3.47 | 0 | 1 |
Isolated impact (RAPM)
The regression-isolated version of the on-ice rates — Nikolaj Ehlers's own contribution at 5v5 once teammates, competition, zone starts, score state and home ice are controlled away, relative to league average, per 60. Defense is sign-flipped so positive = good on both axes; Net = Off + Def. The attempts/60 (Corsi) axis is on a ~15× coarser scale and is the more reliable of the two. Single-season RAPM is a rough read, not a ranking — the pooled window is the honest default.
| Off | Def | Net | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG/60 impact | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| attempts/60 impact | +3.8 | +0.9 | +4.7 |
Modeled shooting
The decontaminated finishing rating from the joint shooter/goalie fit: Nikolaj Ehlers's per-shot logit margin above what the chance was worth, multi-season, time-decayed, positive = good — +0.25 (98th percentile, 4,334 shots informing it). Per-shot quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces.
On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership;
skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown.
RAPM comes from fit rapm__5f979b40 on flat__joint_structure_xg__08293508
(the joint-xg structural baseline).
Ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__bbd50047
(as of 2026-06-14).
Both are separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.