xJawn NHL expected goals

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VGK Noah Hanifin

D · 2025-26 · regular season · 71 GP · 1,346 min 5v5 TOI

On-ice xGF% 5v5
57.4%(95th)
On-ice GF / GA 5v5
58 / 55
G / xG 5v5
2 / 4.2
RAPM net xG/60 · 3-season pooled
+0.03
Shooter rating modeled
+0.00(57th)

On-ice xG shot map

How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Noah Hanifin is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Noah Hanifin took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. The league-spread histograms and the xGF% percentile rank against the other skaters over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the player's markers but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
Goals51.3%58
48.7%55
xG57.4%62.0
42.6%45.9
xG/6057.4%2.76
42.6%2.05
Shots55.2%642
44.8%521
Attempts53.9%1,346
46.1%1,152

Rolling on-ice xGF%

Strength splits

On-ice rates are per 60 minutes at that strength (real time-on-ice), own perspective — a skater's PP row is their team's power play while they are out there.

StrengthTOI/gmxGFxGAxGF%xGF/60xGA/60GFGA
5v519.0 62.045.957.4% 2.762.055855
Power play1.0 8.40.693.4% 7.050.50102
Penalty kill1.8 1.514.19.7% 0.736.79311

Isolated impact (RAPM)

The regression-isolated version of the on-ice rates — Noah Hanifin's own contribution at 5v5 once teammates, competition, zone starts, score state and home ice are controlled away, relative to league average, per 60. Defense is sign-flipped so positive = good on both axes; Net = Off + Def. The attempts/60 (Corsi) axis is on a ~15× coarser scale and is the more reliable of the two. Single-season RAPM is a rough read, not a ranking — the pooled window is the honest default.

OffDefNet
xG/60 impact +0.03 +0.00 +0.03
attempts/60 impact +0.2 +2.0 +2.2

Modeled shooting

The decontaminated finishing rating from the joint shooter/goalie fit: Noah Hanifin's per-shot logit margin above what the chance was worth, multi-season, time-decayed, positive = good — +0.00 (57th percentile, 3,723 shots informing it). Per-shot quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. RAPM comes from fit rapm__5f979b40 on flat__joint_structure_xg__08293508 (the joint-xg structural baseline). Ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__bbd50047 (as of 2026-06-14). Both are separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.