xJawn NHL expected goals

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Brock Boeser

R · Vancouver Canucks · career →

75 GP · 1,017 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Brock Boeser is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Brock Boeser took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±200% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
29 40th pctl63 98th pctl
Shotson-ice
385 52nd pctl520 91st pctl
Attemptson-ice
841 55th pctl1,070 88th pctl
xGon-ice
33.4 45th pctl53.6 94th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
38.4%1st pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP +1.37 goals vs averagepower play +0.70 goals vs average
+2.0785th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-2.778th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-3.625th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
-0.0232nd pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
+0.9291st pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
+0.2680th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
+0.7063rd pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -2.77 goals vs averageDefense impact -3.62 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP +1.37 goals vs averagePower play +0.92 goals vs averageConversion · power play +0.70 goals vs averagePenalty kill +0.26 goals vs averageDiscipline +0.70 goals vs average
-2.4722nd pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.600 = league average+18.60

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Brock Boeser, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
18:59per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.17per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.29per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
50%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 44%tied 35%lead 21%
trails a lot
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.014xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.113xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
62%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 29 / 63
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 33.4 / 53.6
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 385 / 520
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 841 / 1,070
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 38.4%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages +2.07 85th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 205 outside the PP 66th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 118 on the PP 93rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 95th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -2.77 8th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -3.62 5th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved -0.02 32nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 1,324 attempts faced 87th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 15th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window +0.92 91st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved +0.26 80th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken +0.70 63rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -2.47 22nd pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 18:59 (87th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.17 (3rd pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.29 (5th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 50% (53rd pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 44%, tied 35%, lead 21%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.014 (73rd pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.113 (4th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 62%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.