xJawn NHL expected goals

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Albert Johansson

D · Detroit Red Wings · career →

82 GP · 1,145 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Albert Johansson is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Albert Johansson took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±118% of the defenseman cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
31 28th pctl51 64th pctl
Shotson-ice
451 45th pctl551 66th pctl
Attemptson-ice
1,017 47th pctl1,175 65th pctl
xGon-ice
42.7 44th pctl50.0 59th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
46.0%24th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other defensemen over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP -0.28 goals vs average
-0.3137th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-2.5820th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-0.2643rd pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
+0.0257th pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.0454th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
-0.0637th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
+1.3397th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -2.58 goals vs averageDefense impact -0.26 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP -0.28 goals vs averageDiscipline +1.33 goals vs average
-1.9046th pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.600 = league average+18.60

Ranked against defensemen; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Albert Johansson, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
15:55per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.37per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.69per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
48%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 35%tied 37%lead 28%
often tied
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.004xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.027xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
67%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 31 / 51
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 42.7 / 50.0
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 451 / 551
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 1,017 / 1,175
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 46.0%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -0.31 37th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 168 outside the PP 49th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 5 on the PP 54th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 75th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -2.58 20th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -0.26 43rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved +0.02 57th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 1,423 attempts faced 57th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 84th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.04 54th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved -0.06 37th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken +1.33 97th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -1.90 46th pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 15:55 (21st pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.37 (15th pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.69 (85th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 48% (42nd pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 35%, tied 37%, lead 28%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.004 (45th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.027 (27th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 67%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.