xJawn NHL expected goals

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Landon Slaggert

L · Chicago Blackhawks · career →

53 GP · 502 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Landon Slaggert is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Landon Slaggert took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±200% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
13 9th pctl15 7th pctl
Shotson-ice
154 7th pctl207 13th pctl
Attemptson-ice
347 8th pctl459 12th pctl
xGon-ice
14.5 7th pctl21.1 16th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
40.7%3rd pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP -1.09 goals vs average
-1.0922nd pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-1.5021st pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-0.2745th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
-0.0237th pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.0166th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
-0.1219th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
+0.9068th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -1.50 goals vs averageDefense impact -0.27 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP -1.09 goals vs averagePenalty kill -0.12 goals vs averageDiscipline +0.90 goals vs average
-2.1025th pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.600 = league average+18.60

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Landon Slaggert, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
10:32per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.43per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.97per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
42%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 37%tied 38%lead 25%
often tied
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
-0.004xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.086xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
67%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 13 / 15
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 14.5 / 21.1
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 154 / 207
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 347 / 459
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 40.7%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -1.09 22nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 83 outside the PP 12th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 0 on the PP 5th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 3rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -1.50 21st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -0.27 45th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved -0.02 37th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 549 attempts faced 14th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 13th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.01 66th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved -0.12 19th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken +0.90 68th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -2.10 25th pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 10:32 (8th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.43 (22nd pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.97 (69th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 42% (25th pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 37%, tied 38%, lead 25%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM -0.004 (26th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.086 (13th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 67%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.