xJawn NHL expected goals

← Players

Adam Klapka

R · Calgary Flames · career →

79 GP · 790 min 5v5
2025-26 · 5v5
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Adam Klapka is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Adam Klapka took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice
for against
axis spans ±200% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
25 32nd pctl30 38th pctl
Shotson-ice
310 36th pctl355 44th pctl
Attemptson-ice
720 40th pctl791 50th pctl
xGon-ice
27.6 33rd pctl35.5 52nd pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
43.8%11th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · on-ice
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window

Model estimates

🔒 full season · not filtered
Season-long ratings — the filters above don't apply here.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP -0.31 goals vs average
-0.3646th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-1.3423rd pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-0.4339th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
+0.0684th pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.0646th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
+0.0032nd pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
-2.481st pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -1.34 goals vs averageDefense impact -0.43 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP -0.31 goals vs averageDiscipline -2.48 goals vs average
-4.608th pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.600 = league average+18.60

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Usage & context

descriptive · not modeled
The job the coach handed Adam Klapka, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
10:36per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
2.50per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
1.36per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
44%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 37%tied 31%lead 32%
balanced
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
-0.010xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.104xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
73%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 25 / 30
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 27.6 / 35.5
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 310 / 355
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 720 / 791
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 43.8%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -0.36 46th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 174 outside the PP 55th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 8 on the PP 31st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 59th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -1.34 23rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -0.43 39th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved +0.06 84th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 815 attempts faced 34th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 71st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.06 46th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved +0.00 32nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken -2.48 1st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -4.60 8th pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 10:36 (8th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 2.50 (100th pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 1.36 (90th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 44% (30th pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 37%, tied 31%, lead 32%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM -0.010 (15th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.104 (7th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 73%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.