Montréal Canadiens
Atlantic · 9-10
2025-26 · playoffs
shots for◀ 5v5 offense
How to read this map
One rink, both ends: what MTL generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per game. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked.
The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout, and the strength buckets segregate them anyway — which is why the empty-net control greys out unless the view can actually contain one. Everything inside the outlined box moves with the filters; everything below it does not.
Observed production
5v5 · playoffsPercentiles and the gray spread rank against all 32 teams recomputed under the current filter — every bar and band here moves together, so a slice never ranks against a different slice's league.
Rolling xGF%
5v5 · playoffsModel estimates
🔒 full season · 5v5These four are shown within-season centered — each against this season's own league average, not the fit's career-pooled one — because shooting talent leaguewide is running well above its historical zero point this season; without that adjustment nearly every bar would read "above average." The against columns still barely vary between teams, since every team faces roughly average opposition, so for those two the rank still matters more than the level. They are shown because they genuinely move adjusted xGF% below (computed from the uncentered ratings — see that section's own note), and folding them into the two own-team rows would have hidden half of that.
How it's built, and what it isn't
How it's builtEvery 5v5 shot is re-scored with
σ(logit(xG) + shooter − goalie) and both ends re-summed. Both skill terms land on
every shot — one team's for side, the other's against side — so the league share still
averages 50%. The two moves are taken in that order and sum exactly to the total;
shares don't decompose additively, so a side-by-side split would not close.
What it isn'tA descriptive re-score of shots already taken, not a forecast. Against future goal share the combined adjustment is indistinguishable from plain xGF% (+0.019 r, p = 0.192); only the shooting half shows a small honest lift (+0.026, p = 0.020), and the saving half contributes nothing forward-looking. The premise underneath is itself unestablished — xGF% over GF% is +0.040, p = 0.246. Read it as what this roster's skill was worth on these shots — nothing more.
The four segments are the four rows above, in order. They are four and not two
because η puts both rating terms on every shot: the shots we took carry
our shooters and the opposing goalie, and the shots we faced carry their shooters
and ours. Over a full season the two “against” terms would sit near league
average and contribute nothing — but the ratings are not centred at zero this
season, so they do move the number, and hiding them inside a single “shots faced”
figure would have left half the adjustment unexplained.
Season context
descriptive · not modeledFull table · all numbers
| Family | Stat | Value (current slice) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed ◆ filtered | Goals for / against | 34 / 36 |
| Observed ◆ filtered | xG for / against | 34.8 / 44.3 |
| Observed ◆ filtered | Shots for / against | 320 / 423 |
| Observed ◆ filtered | Attempts for / against | 744 / 965 |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | Shooting — our skaters · on our shots, vs this season's average | -0.3 G 31st pctl |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | Saving — our goalies · on shots faced, vs this season's average | +2.2 G 100th pctl |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | Shooting against — their skaters · on shots faced | +0.0 G 63rd pctl |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | Saving against — their goalies · on our shots | -0.8 G 13th pctl |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | Unadjusted xGF% | 44.0% |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | ↳ shooting shift | +0.76 pp |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | ↳ saving against shift | -1.81 pp |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | ↳ shooting against shift | -0.99 pp |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | ↳ saving shift | +2.50 pp |
| Modeled 🔒 5v5 | Adjusted xGF% | 44.5% 13th pctl |
| Context | Ice time — share by strength | -0.7 |
| Context | Score state — TOI by game state | often tied |
| Context | Goalie workload — starter's share of shots | 100% |
| Context | Schedule strength — opponents' net xG-RAPM | — |
Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season 5v5 fit.
Modeled ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e
(as of 2026-06-14) — a separate surface from the
box-score xG model badged in the footer.